In our last article we discussed the first three steps of being a successful handicapper for Friday’s games. And for Saturday’s games we won’t go too far ahead as we will review the first three steps and discuss the next step. For Saturday Football TV we will fast forward from there to see which games we can take advantage of.
Reading the Line
This first week of college football we will simply just be reading the lines and compare them to media hype and public perception. Money management is the key to being successful at handicapping sports games. Going into the week you should already know what percentage each game will be. Yesterday we called the first two steps after the money management plan. From now on we will call that step one so theres no confusion.
So for review step one is to have your money management paln set for the week. If your bankroll for the entire year is $10,000 then each 1% is $100. If your bankroll is much less than try 3-6% for college and 6-12% for NFL instead of 1-3% and 3-6%. If bankroll is $1,000 then $30-$60 and if your bankroll is $100 then your college games will be $3-6 to start.
Don’t worry it’s week 1, we will get up there just stay slow and steady for now. It is a marathon not a sprint. We will have plenty of chances to shoot our big shots with house money. Any extra risks we play with either wager size, parlays or props are earned from house money. We do not use our money for these types of bets. No matter what. No house money, then no parlays or props, simple as that.
Step number two is to be in a good mood and sober. This step will sound unnecessary and silly to many but those people havn’t done this thier entire adulthood. It’s crucial to be feeling good and not stressed or pressure to make money. If your on tilt from the day before than forget about it, or if you’ve been drinking then just wait until the next day.
Step number three is to take a quick look at the lines for the day preferably early in the morning. This step is simply to get an idea of what type of day you’re dealing with although you should already know from step five and six the day before, but we’ll get there.
Let’s take a quick look at Saturdays games. Here is the lineup, we like to use Bovada because they have a very good average of most sports books and they give great bonuses and rewards for players. They have been around a long time and have a great reputation of paying on time.
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Okay here’s step three and Saturday’s lineups with the odds, juice, point totals, and the channel you can watch the game on. Channel and time. We are just looking for anything that seems suspicious with the line and noticing the highs and lows.
9AM PT Games
Buffalo.+24.0 (-110)+1050 AT Maryland-24.0 (-110) -2500 O/U 65.0 (-110) BTN
Colorado State +31.0 (-110) AT Michigan (#8) -31.0 (-110) O60 (-115) U60.0 (-105). ABC
Seems about right.
NC State (#13) -12.0 (-110) -430 AT East Carolina +12.0 (-110) +320. O/U 51.5 (-110) ESPN
North Carolina. +1.5 (-105) +110 AT Appalachian State -1.5 (-115) -130 O/U 56.5 (-110) ESPN
Rutgers +7.5 (-110) +240 AT Boston College -7.5 (-110) -290 O/U 48.0 (-110) ACCN
11:30AM Bowling Green +24.0 (-110) AT UCLA -24.0 (-110) O/U 56.5 (-110) PAC12
Arizona +6.5 (-115) +190 AT San Diego State -6.5 (-105) -230 O/U 46.5 (-110) CBS
Vegas could’ve gotten away with even action at a higher number. They conveniently set the number below the main key number. Who thinks the Aztecs can win by a touchdown? Everybody? Ok let’s check this one out too.
Cincinnati (#23) +7.0 (-115) +210 AT Arkansas (#19) -7.0 (-105) -250 O/U 53.5 (-110) ESPN
Houston (#24).-4.0 (-115)-185 AT UTSA +4.0 (-105) +160 O/U 62.0 (-110) CBSN
Ok, here we go! What the heck!? Ummm, Houston -4 only? Everybody and thier momma will be betting on Houston. Las Vegas appears to be working here. We are checking this one out for sure. UTSA what you got?
Oregon (#11) +16.5 (-110)+550 AT Georgia (#3) -16.5 (-110) -850 O/U 54.0 (-110) ABC
UTEP+31.0 (-110) AT Oklahoma (#9) -31.0 (-110) O/U 57.0 (-110). FOX
This would be Oklahoma heavy no matter what the line. Public might win this one.
Tulsa-6.5 (-115)-250 AT Wyoming +6.5 (-105) +210 O/U 45.5 (-110) FS1
This is worth a look.
BYU (#25) -11.5 (-110) -415 AT South Florida +11.5 (-110) +310 O/U 58.5 (-110) ESPNU
1PM Troy+21.5 (-110)+850 AT Mississippi (#21) -21.5 (-110) -1800 O/U 56.5 (-110) SECN
2:30PM Texas State.-1.0 (-110)-120 AT Nevada +1.0 (-110) EVEN O/U 51.5 (-110)
Let’s give this one a closer look as well.
Florida Atlantic-4.5 (-110)-185 AT Ohio +4.5 (-110) +160 O/U 49.5 (-110) ESPN+
Middle Tennessee State +4.5 (-110)+165 AT James Madison -4.5 (-110) -195 O/U 59.0 (-115) ESPN+
Rice.+32.5 (-110) AT USC (#14) -32.5 (-110)O/U 62.0 (-105) PAC12
Army +1.5 (-110) +105 AT Coastal Carolina -1.5 (-110) -125 O/U 53.5 (-110) ESPN+
Liberty 3.5 (-110) AT Southern Mississippi +3.5 (-110) -165 +140 O/U 49.5 (-110) ESPN+
Massachusetts+28.5 (-115) AT Tulane -28.5 (-105) O/U 59.0 (-105) ESPN+
Miami Ohio +15.0 (-110) +475 AT Kentucky (#20) -15.0 (-110) -700 O/U 54.5 (-110) ESPN+
Utah (#7) 2.5 (-110) -140 At Florida +2.5 (-110) +120 O51.5 (-105) U51.5 (-115) ESPN
Georgia State +13.0 (-115) +350 At South Carolina -13.0 (-105) -480 O/U 55.0 (-110) SEC+ / ESPN+
Memphis+17.0 (-110) +500 AT Mississippi State -17.0 (-110) -750 O/U 58.0 (-110) ESPNU
Notre Dame (#5) +16.0 (-110) +475 AT Ohio State (#2) -16.0 (-110) -700 O59.5 (-105) U59.5 (-115) ABC
SMU -10.0 (-110) -350 North Texas +10.0 (-110) +275 O/U 67.5 (-110) CBSN
Utah State +42.0 (-110) AT Alabama (#1) -42.0 (-110) O63.5 (-110) SECN
Louisville -5.0 (-110)-195 AT Syracuse +5.0 (-110) +165 O/U 57.0 (-110) ACCN
UL Monroe +37.5 (-110) AT Texas -37.5 (-110) O/U 64.0 (-110). LHN
Level 4 – 7:30PM 2 Night Games
We always look at the last games of a full day. This is when the gamblers try to get the money back they lost. Any fishy lines at this spot will be a great play. A good day gives us the choice to double up here or use a double dip parlay strategy.
Boise State +2.5 (-115) +115 AT Oregon State -2.5 (-105) -135 O/U 56.0 (-110) ESPN
Kent State+23.0 (-110) Washington -23.0 (-110) O/U 60.0 (-110) FS!
No Line Yet
Sam Houston AT #6 Texas A&M SECN
C Connecticut AT UCONN
Delaware AT Navy CBSN
9:30AM Richmond AT Virginia ESPN3
Bethune. At #16. Miami. ACCN
North Dakota At Nebraska BTN
Norfolk ST. At Marshall ESPN3
1PM UC Davis. At. California
2PM Nicholls At South Alabama. ESPN3
3PM Morgan St At. Georgia So. ESPN3
Albany At #10 Baylor BIG12 / ESPN+
Illinois St At #18 Wisconsin FS!
Mercer At Auburn SECN+ / ESPN+
Elon At Vanderbilt SECN+ / ESPN+
South Dakota At Kansas City BIG12/. ESPN+
Army. At. Coastal Carolina ESPN+ / COASTALCAR
SE Loisiana At Louisiana ESPN+
Grambling At Arkansas St. ESPN3
Colgate At Stanford
Murray St At Texas Tech. BIG12 / ESPN+
Maine At New Mexico
We are in house money no matter what going in to Saturday, now we protect it. Started off 3-0 and it looks like we could go 2-0 tonight. Since this week and most likely next week we will be using the Line Read strategy then we keep everything else simple. It won’t be like this all year but for now it’s the best method to start the season.
At this step we are checking to see if there’s any obvious line movements or obvious situations where it appears like an easy pick. Maybe situations where the line is confusing or maybe one team should be a lot more favored than they are.
If there’s any serious line movements or changes without a serious injury then you’re gonna have to look into it for that day. Our money management plan is set at 1% each wager and we’re up 2.8% after the first day. Today we will obviously keep it the same at 1%.
After Friday’s games we had two games so we are either going to be up .8%, 4.6% or at 3.7-ish%. We just won the first game with Old Dominion pulling out the win, we will either be at +4.6% or +3.7%. So for Saturday’s games we’re already playing with house money. it’s important to keep the bets the same and build on that green. Let’s keep it going.
The next article will be a quick discussion of the games that meet the criteria. It looks like we will have anywhere from 3-9 games on Saturday. Step 4 will be to look the next days games and step 5 will be to review yesterdays games.
Let’s keep it going and help each other out. Any observations, information or questions please let us know in the comments.
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