Week 3
Current Picks and Handicapper Stats
It’s always a good idea to look a week ahead or to notice any serious line movements. The goal here is just to give a quick look at the lines and maybe noticed the highs and lows of the week and see if anything seems off or obvious.
Las Vegas odds makers are extremely smart. Let me give you some advice that will take you far in this game…
When it seems obvious, it’s usually not. The sportsbooks will try to tip the scale on certain games and it’s our job to side with them where we can.
We will pick up on some tips that Las Vegas gave us this week. Let’s see how many this week.
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We are in week 2 looking at week 3, here we go.
Thursday Night Football
5:15PM PT
Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 (-115) ML+145 At Cleveland Browns -3.5 (-105) ML-170 O/U 40.5
These AFC North games are always tough. We can expect this division rivalry to be a hardnose game. The spread and the point total at 40 seem spot on so let’s see if it moves at all.
Leaning on the Browns a week ahead of time.
Sunday Morning
Baltimore Ravens -3 (-110) ML-160 At New England Patriots +3 (-110) +135. O/U 43
John Harbaugh faces Bill Belichick. New England Patriots continue to get no respect, a three point dog at home. Nobody’s expecting much from the Patriots this year.
Buffalo Bills -4.5 (-110) ML-200 At Miami Dolphins +4.5 (-110) ML+170. O/U 50
Division game! We thought this game would be closer then -4.5. Even so the Bills should still get a little more action than the Dolphins. Vegas oddsmakers didn’t have much of a choice.
Cincinnati Bengals -6.(-110) ML-250 At New York Jets +6 (-110) ML+210. O/U 43
Bengals lost a heartbreaker to the division rival Steelers and go to Dallas for a week 2. They might walk into MetLife Stadium 0–2.
The Jets did not look good in week 1 and have a chance to redeem themselves in Cleveland for week 2. Jets are 6.5 dogs against the Browns and listed 6 point dogs here against the Bengals.
Detroit Lions +7.5 (-110) ML+270 At Minnesota Vikings -7.5 (-110) -340. O/U 50
Detroit Lions almost made a great comeback against the Eagles but fell short 38–35 in week one. They play a 1–0 Commanders team at home and could go to Minnesota down 0–2.
Vikings looked good just like we thought they would against the Packers in week 1. They play on Monday Night Football against the Eagles who are also 1–0.
The line shouldn’t go up much more regardless of the outcomes but it could get a lot closer depending on what happens Sunday and Monday. It won’t go up but it might come down.
Houston Texans +3 (-110) ML+135 At Chicago Bears -3 (-110) ML-160 O/U 39
Texas had their chances to win in week 1. Instead, they ended up with a tie. A tie is better than what most people expected.
Week two they are a 10 point underdog going to Denver. Then week 3 listed at only 3 point dogs.
Chicago plays on Sunday Night Football in week 2 in Cheesehead land. Bears are also a 10 point dog against the Packers.
Depending on how these teams play, it can drastically change this week 3 line.
If you like one team for week two it wouldn’t be a bad call for a small play on week 3.
When the numbers change you could play both sides and guarantee yourself some money. Just like the Monday night football game between the chargers and the chiefs.
Las Vegas Raiders PK (-110) ML-110 At Tennessee Titans PK (-110) O/U 47
Both teams had a disappointing week 1 starting off 0–1. Raiders are a five point favorite against the Cardinals in week 2.
The Titans play on Monday Night Football in Buffalo to battle the very talented Bills. They are 10 point dogs in that game and Vegas is not giving them a chance.
We are expecting this line to change because we’re expecting Raiders to win and Titans to get blown out. A Raiders week 3 play would be a smart move.
When the line moves up you have the choice of taking Tennessee and guaranteeing yourself some money or letting it ride with advantageous odds. We usually take the free money here and maybe set up an opportunity where you could win both.
We call that the double dip method which we talked about last week for Week 1 Picks.
New Orleans Saints -2.5 (-110) ML-140. At Carolina Panthers +2.5 (-110). ML+120. O/U 42.5
This is an interesting matchup for week three. Saints might walk in the Carolina 2–0 and the Panthers might be 0–2. Which is what we are early leaning towards so far.
If that’s the case Saints might move up to a touchdown or maybe at -6. Something we might think about for a week 3 play. We’ll see.
Philadelphia Eagles -3 (-110) ML-165 At. Washington Commanders +3 (-110) ML+140. O/U 50
These division division games in the NFC East are always fun to watch. It really does seem like they hate each other. Similar to the AFC West or AFC North battles.
Both teams won in week 1 and had moments when they looked really good, and had moments where they looked really bad. They both walked out with the win and both have interesting matchups for week 2.
So we’ll see where were at for week three but nothing screams out on this line.
Afternoon Games
1:05PM PT
Jacksonville Jaguars NL At Los Angeles Chargers NL CBS
1:25PM PT
Atlanta Falcons +3 (-110) ML+145 At Seattle Seahawks -3 (-110) ML-170 O/U 42.5 FOX 
Falcons are 10 point dogs in week 2 facing the Los Angeles Rams. Seattle Seahawks are 9 dogs facing the San Francisco 49ers.
It’s very likely Falcons will be 0–2 and Seahawks will be 1–1.
Nobody can argue with this line. If the line stays the same Seattle should get most of the bets at home.
We like the Falcons in the spot.
Green Bay Packers +3 (Even) ML+140 At. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 (-120) ML-165. O/U 48. FOX
This will be the game of the week. This would be the game of any week.
Aaron Rodgers versus Tom Brady. Line is -3 to the home team is spot on for this game in order to get even action.
Las Vegas will not have to build an advantage on this one, they win either way.
Los Angeles Rams -4.5 (-110) ML-210 At. Arizona Cardinals +4.5 (-110) ML+175. O/U 51.5. FOX
Road favorite division game. Seems like Vegas is tipping the scale already.
This might be a tip that the Cardinals start off 0–2 so Vegas won’t have to adjust the lines as much.
Cardinals are five point dogs against the Raiders in week two which also seems a little high for a Raider team that didn’t look that good in week 1.
Let’s circle that Cardinal vs Raider game in week 2, looking for the Raiders to win by a touchdown or more. This is one of the reasons why it’s good to look a week ahead to see if we can get any tips from Vegas.
Now we start examining the Raiders for a week 2 win and Cardinals for a loss.
Sunday Night Football
San Francisco 49ers +3 (-120) ML+130 At Denver Broncos -3 (EV) ML-150. O/U 45.5. NBC
We are getting some fun games for Sunday Night and Monday Night Football so far and you can add this one to the list.
Two very tough teams that should get about even action, maybe a little more on the 49ers. The juice is already heavy on the 49ers so Vegas is expecting this.
Monday Night Football
5:30 PM PT
Dallas Cowboys +4 (-105) ML+165 At New York Giants -4 (-115) ML-195 O/U 40.5. ABC/ESPN
Giants are a four point favorite already, maybe another tip that they might look good in the week 2.
Or maybe the Cowboys are going to look bad with the backup Qb in week 2.
Giants play the Panthers as a two point favorite at home.
Cowboys are seven point dogs against the Bengals at home. Seems like nobody believes in Cowboy back up quarterback Cooper Rush.
If you think Cooper Rush is a stud and he’s gonna dominate then maybe this week 3 early play is for you.
For the rest of us we might be taking a harder look at the Giants and Panther game this week.
Let us know who your picking.
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