We’re on a roll, lets keep it going. 14 NFL games and we will be picking teams against the spread to beat Las Vegas once again. We have reviewed the odds for this week in our Monday article and have done our work throughout the week so we are officially ready to make some investments.
Thursday Night Football on Prime Video kicks off the week per usual, this time with Washington Commanders going to the Windy City to play the Chicago Bears.
4 Bye teams this week are the Lions, Texans, Raiders and Titans.
Daily Sports Picks & Handicapper Stats
Thursday Night Football
Washington at Chicago
|5:15PM PT Prime Video||REC||Home|
Gematria Thursday Night Football Numbers
Washington is coming off of 4 straight losses and the head coach has just publicly called out the qaurterback. The Bears have lost 2 straight and need a win to get to 3-3 and stay in striking distance from the 4-1 division leader Minnesota Vikings.
The season is already on the line for them on week 6 because 1-5 will be too much for a team like this to overcome.
We will of course keep on going with the Gematria Picks as it is 11-2 for the Year! Gematria Prime Time it is, we’ll wait for the pick to come out. Without Gematria it would be Washington.
Final Pick Gematria Pick = Washington Commanders ML
Units = 6.6
Sunday Morning Football Level 1
San Francisco at Atlanta
|San Francisco 49ers||3–2||1–2||-5.5||-5.5||-245||61%||SF-4|
The 49ers could be missing at least 6 starters which is why the spread has dropped back down to 5.5. This was an honest line with appropiate line movement, up and then down upon injury news. Ordinarily we would do a matchup pick in which case 49ers would be the obvious play.
We’re not willing to actually bet against the Falcons right now, yes you read that right. Atlanta is the only undefeated team against the spread remaining in the league. The right call would be the niners but we have been so good there is no reason to force a wager. Lets keep it moving. We can always revisit on Friday.
Ok, we could be very wrong on this but this feels like a public giveaway and an attack on the sharps. The line dropped and heavy action came in on Atlanta from the sharps but the public was still all over the niners. The injuries for the niners incling Nick Bosa justify the line movement but Vegas knows what they’re doing. Ordinarily this would be a small play on the Falcons but we are going 3 Units when the plays should be 12, so going small on Niners to cover.
Final Pick = 49ers -4
Units = 3.3 Units, Double half Play
New England at Cleveland
|New England Patriots||2–3||1–2||42||42||43%||NE+3||6.6|
Everybody knows what Cleveland is going to try to do right?
They’re going to try to run the football with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. We also know Bill Bilichick stops the opposing teams main trait. He’s going to stack the box and it will be up to Jacoby Brisset.
We think both teams are better than most people realize but we are most likely taking Patriots every time they are underdogs with the lighter action on the game. This team seems to be the sharpest team in the NFL this year and a real money maker for Vegas.
Matchup wise and after reading the line we like the Patriots in this spot to beat the Browns outright in Cleveland. The way the line came off the Patriots feels like another sharp attack, we could be reading too much into both morning games so far but we’re playing it careful and sticking to 3 units again.
Final Pick = New England Patriots +3
Units = Half Play 6.6 Units
New York at Green Bay
|New York Jets||3–2||2–0||44.5||45.5||56%|
|Green Bay Packers||3–2||2–1||-7.5||-7||44%||GB-7||6.6|
The Jets are coming off a blowout win against the division rival Dolphins and the Packers are coming off of a defeat in front of the whole world in London to the New York Giants. The spread was 9 last week before those games happened now we have a heavy over reaction and Vegas played it perfectly.
We expect this line to rise at least to 7.5 but probably settle at 8 so if you like Packers like us, let’s take them now. The line should not move off the key number especially with the heavier action on the Jets but we are expecting the sharps to move on this game at any moment.
Match up wise, the Packers should dominate the run game on both sides and taking Rodgers off of a loss can never be that bad of an idea. We thought about the over but we’ll just stick with the Packers for another double half play.
Final Pick = Packers -7
Units = Half play for 6.6 Units
Jacksonville at Indianapolis
Why not open it at -3 where the line would get even action?
This is the type of advantages we look for. It may seem small but it’s all they need to make millions upon millions more. Keeping the home team that most people perceive to be slightly better favored by less than 3 is crucial to get more bets.
Not quite the same as the Bengals and Saints game but similar in that the team that has the heavy action is just under a key number. These type of bets are what this sports investment is about, we arn’t going to win them all, we might not win this one but we will definetly win more than we lose by far.
Vegas will not miss these oppurtunities often, they had a window to go on either side of the key number and chose the under against heavy action. Hmmm.
Ok. lets side with Vegas. They make a little more with the Jags and chose the low side of the window they had on making the spread in this game.
We must be slowly adjusting to the unit increase because we like the Jags here but want to make it a half play at 6 Units.
We could be wrong but don’t feel like it will get to 3 points like the Saints game might. It wouldn’t be a bad idea to wait if you can get 3 but we don’t think it will, so we’re going to take the 2 and call it a day.
Final Pick = Jacksonville Jaguars +2
Units = 6.6 Units
Minnesota at Miami
Miami might be in trouble without their leader, and now without Teddy Bridgewater who went out in the first quarter of last weeks game. The rookie Skylar Thompson looked decent and he does seem poised for a Rookie, so it’ll be interesting to see what he can do.
We expect heavy action to be on Minnesota here only favored by a field goal against the third string rookie quarterback. Something might be up here? Let’s keep an eye out and watch this line throughout the week.
Good teams going into the game knowing they have their backup qaurterback are always a good spot to cover. The value is usually good and the team is on alert they have to carry the backup.
This was close to be a regular play but the late action on Miami and the juice love they’re getting is holding us back into another half play at 6 Units even money at +3.
Final Pick = Miami Dolphins +3
Units = Half Play at 6 Units at even money.
Cincinnati at New Orleans
|Cincinnati Bengals||2–3||1–1||-1.5||-2||76%||CIN -2||6.6|
|New Orleans Saints||2–3||1–2||43||43.5||24%|
The Saints might be able to get to Burrow without blitzing which he excels at. Saints don’t blitz that often and if they’re able to put pressure on him they might have the advantage here. Joe Mixon should be able to run for a bit against the mediocre rush defense but nothing too crazy.
We believe these are two evenly matched teams and people don’t realize it yet. So yes its very possible the Bengals win but with these teams being so even, nobody realizing it and everybody betting the Bengals we think thats enough to invest in the Saints at home.
Final Pick = Cincinnatti Bengals -2
Units = 6.6 for half play
Baltimore at New York
|Baltimore Ravens||3-2||2–0||-5||-5.5||55%||Bal -5||6.6 Units|
|New York Giants||4–1||2–1||44||44||45%|
The Packers didn’t seem to watch tape on Daniel Jones because they decided to blitz a lot throughout the whole game which played into his strength. It will be too hard for the Ravens to get pressure on the Giants with 4 so they’re probably going to do what they usually do which is blitz.
The sports books are going to have to give back a bit but they didn’t have much choice. They couldn’t open over 7 on the road against a 4-1 Giants team, that would have sent red flags. Instead a number of 5 with appropiate line movement throughout the week.
This is another game if you like the Ravens here against our suprise team of the year then let’s take them now because this spread should get to 6 by game time. We could be wrong but we like 5 for a half play at 6 units.
Final Pick = Baltimore Ravens -5
Units = 6.6 Units
Tampa Bay at Pittsburgh
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||3–2||2–0||-7.5||-9||Over||2.2|
The line is moving but we feel like its for show, it should’ve been 9 or 10 to start and they weren’t in too big of a hurry. The heavy action is on the Bucs and who can blame them.
They havn’t been able to pressure the qaurterback since T.J Watt has been out since week 1 and blitzing Tom Brady is never a good idea so you just give Tom Brady all day?
On the other side Kenny Pickett will get his 2nd career start and his first was a blowout loss but he didnt do that bad.He was 34-52 for 327 yards but no touchdowns and 1 interception. He has another tough matchup against another Super Bowl contender.
Once again Pickett won’t have any help from his rushing game as Tampa Bay will shut that down. They do have a shot at busting some long ones with Jaylen Warren or maybe getting a rhythm with Najee Harris which is a long shot this game.
If they can get the ball to George Pickens they might be able to make some plays and keep them in the game. This Steeler team is not very good but a Mike Tomlin team shouldn’t get blown out twice in a row but we’ll see.
We’re expecting Tampa to make some mistakes and Pittsburgh to keep it close. We can get 9 at Bovada right now and don’t think it will go to 10, so we’ll take the +9 now.
Most people have Tampa Bay so if we miss this one we’ll be hearing a lot of “I told you so’s”.
Final Pick Pittsburgh Steelers +9
Units= 13.2 Units
Sunday Afternoon Level 2
Carolina at Los Angeles
|Carolina Panthers||1–4||0–1||42||42||49%||Rams -9|
|Los Angeles Rams||2–3||1–2||-9||-10||51%||Under|
We could be wrong on this one but we think this game will be a blowout. Carolina could be fired up to get rid of the head coach and play inspired football like we have seen teams do in the past when fired an un popular coach.
That dynamic is hard to get a feel for without being there but the sharps are betting Carolina. It might be a setup because they are trying to convince the public hard that people are betting Carolina. This might be a trap for the sharps which we have felt an unprecedent 4 times so far this week. We’re going double half play.
Lets take the much better team with even action. Lets go Rams.
We’re also taking some tiny parlays with Panthers moneyline with some of our other favorites. Parlay Multiplier Hedge!
Game time Update. We are hoping for a Panther win because of our parlays are in action thanks to our hedge parlay that needs Panthers to win outright for a big hit.
Final Pick = Rams -10 No more 9s. Panthers Moneyline
Units = 3.2 Units
Arizona at Seattle
The battle for last place in the division is on!
The sharps are on Seattle and we just don’t get it. This smells like a reverse trap as we call it where they give the easy win when the public goes light because the sharps are heavy on the small upset that couldve been much higher of a spread.
Vegas made it too easy for the sharps, they had a huge window to set the line. They chose the low side and kept it right under the key number of 3. Regularly that would be a play for Seattle but it just feels like a setup as Vegas does right around this time of year.
We’re going to coninue watching this line and we will revisit Friday night.
We’re joining the sharps on this one , it feels like the oddsmakers tried to dodge a bullet which is why they didn’t take the oppurtunity of setting the line on the high side at 4 or 5.
Final Pick= Seattle Seahawks 13.2 Units
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Buffalo at Kansas City
|Kansas City Chiefs||4–1||2–0||53.5||53.5||55%||Under|
Game of the week alert! This will be must see TV.
This might be another trap, they did good on these bafternoon games. We believe Josh Allen gets his revenge on Kansas City and dominates this game. Kansas City has not been as good as most people think and Buffalo is just different.
We’re a little scared this could be a trap like the other one so lets keep it small but lets go Bills!
This line will most likely move to 3 so lets take it now.
Final Pick = Buffalo Bills -2
Units = 26.4 Units Double play.
Sunday Night Football Level 3
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Dallas at Philadelphia
Gematria is 11-2 before Thursday Night Football and hopefully 12-2 if Washington wins.
Final Pick = Gematria = Eagles -6.5 Eagles ML parlay with Chargers ML
Units = 13 -6.5/ 13 ML with Chargers
Monday Night Football
|5:15PM PT ESPN||REC||Home|
|Los Angeles Chargers||3–2||1–1||-6.5||-6.5||69%||LAC|
The second place Game of the Week! This will be a great one for Monday Night Football!
12-2 this year on Prime Time Gematria Picks. Numbers tell the story.
Monday Night Football Gematria!