Welcome to NFL picks against the spread in week 5 where we will pick every single game and show you each play we make. We are here to help sports bettors beat the house and teach people how.
The week starts with a Thursday night game that should be a defensive battle. Sunday is starting early with the 6am PT game in London between the Giants and Packers which will be another defensive game despite the good qaurterback play from both.
Daily Sports Picks and Handicapper Stats.
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Updated Odds= Use the best odds for each game.
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|Time||Game and Spread||O/U|
|Ind (1-2-1)+3.5 @ Den (2-2) -3|
Colts WIN 12-9
|NYG (3-1) +8 @ GB (3-1) -9||41.5|
|10||LAC (2-2) -1.5 @ CLE (2-2) +1.5||46.5|
|10||Pit (1-3) +14 @ Buf (3-1) -14||45.5|
|10||CHI (2-2) +7.5 @ MIN (3-1) -7.5||43|
|10||DET (1-3) +3 @ NE (1-3) -3||47|
|10||SEA (2-2) +4.5 @ NO (1-3) -4.5||45.5|
|10||MIA (3-1) -3 @ NYJ (2-2) +3||44.5|
|10||ATL (2-2) +9 @ TB (2-2) -9||48.5|
|10||TEN (2-2) -1.5 @ WSH +1.5||43|
|10||HOU (0-3-1) +7 @ JAX (2-2) -7||43.5|
|1:05||SF (1-2) -6.5 @ CAR (1-3) +6.5||39.5|
|1:25||DAL (3-1) +5.5 @ LAR (2-1) -5.5||42|
|1:25||PHI (4-0) -5 @ ARI (2-2) +5||49.|
|5:20||CIN (2-2) +3.5 @ BAL (2-2) -3.5||48|
|LV (1-3) +7 @ KC (3-1) -7||51|
Top Picks= Patriots-3, Giants+9, Cardinals+6 Bengals+4
Thursday Night Football
We’re expecting another good game for Thursday Night Football. This time between the Indianapolis Colts and the Denver Broncos. Denver will try to get to 3-2 and the Colts will try to get to .500.
We’re also expecting an ugly game between these two and will be taking a look at the under. Neither of these offenses have found the groove and they both will be battling pretty good defenses.
We will see what Gematria has for this game but so far it looks like the Broncos will be the play. Gematria picks are 9–1 this year and the game that was wrong was the Denver Broncos in week 1.
Gematria Pick= Broncos =WRONG, now we are 9-2 with Gematria picks. Whoops.
Units: Regular play at 6.6 units.
|New York Giants||3–1||London||41.5||41.5||+9||41.5||39%|
|Green Bay Packers||3–1||London||-8||-8||-9||-9||61%|
The surprising New York Giants take on Super Bowl contender Green Bay Packers in London. The spread opened up at 8 and has jumped to 9.5 with money coming in on Green Bay.
There was some concern Daniel Jones will get the start but it looks like he will play after all. It almost feels like Vegas might’ve put that information out to stall or scare Giant bettors even further. It worked on us. We’re waiting and gained a point.
The Giants are a good football team and hardly anybody has noticed. Green Bay is also a good football team but everybody knows that, and the bets have shown just that. The line has adjusted appropriately but should stay under the key number of 10.
We’ll be holding out just in case we can get 10, but we do like the Giants in London. We aren’t going to go crazy, but the play will be 3.3 units at +9.5. If we can get 10 then we will go another 1.1.
Small parlay on the Giants +290 Money Line to use as a multiplier with a few of our other favorite plays.
We do like the Giants to cover here and are going to play a normal play at 6.6 Units.
Final Pick= New York Giants +9
Units= Regular play at 6.6. Small parlays with money line +290.
Sunday Morning Games
|Los Angeles Chargers||2–2||1–1||-3||-3||-2||-1.5||44%|
Two talented teams that are playing just mediocre right now collide at 2-2 a piece. The Chargers’ problems against the run has continued from last year. This week they run into a team that can run the rock with two very good running backs.
Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are probably licking their chops right about now. The other side of the ball not so much. They have Justin Herbert to look forward to. Justin looked back to normal last week as he struggled the week before dealing with some injuries.
The sharps have been betting the Browns since Wednesday when the news came out that Myles Garrett will be playing. The spread stayed at the key number and sharps drove it down to 2.5 and probably keep going down to 1 by gane time.
We don’t love this game but we’re gonna take the better team that has a litle less action than the home team.
Final Pick: Cleveland Browns +2.
Units: Half Play for 3.3. / Hedge bet parlay 0.3 Chargers with hedge on Blue Jays with Mariners GM 2, Patriots moneyline and Bengals+4. Hedge the first two on a full next day and adjust from there.
Nobody wants to put money on Chicago in this spot and we don’t blame them. Minnesota has been finding ways to win and it feels like they’re on the verge of really coming together.
We believe that the Vikings are actually better than most people think and they should have their way with the Bears in the trenches on both sides of the ball.
The Vikings should be the play here but there’s just so much money coming in on them and it’s making us uneasy about taking such a lopsided action game.
Final Pick: Minnesota Vikings-7 Take it now, if the line does move it won’t be in our direction.
|New England Patriots||1–3||0–1||-2.5||-3||-3||-3||48%|
The Lions just surrendered 48 points to a team that was supposed to be one of the worst teams in the league. People are still backing them as this game is about 50-50 in action. Even money.
Nobody wants to give up on the Lions who is slowly turning into the nation’s Cinderella team. The problem is they’re still not winning, and now face a team that’s also 1-3 trying to save their season. Whoever loses will probably be in too much of a hole to get themselves out this year.
This game is one of the easiest for us to pick for week 5. We like the line movement, value, the money, action and the matchups in this game. This will most likely be our biggest play of the day. Our Play of the Day!
Final Pic: Let’s go Patriots! Lets take it now if the line does move it won’t be in our favor, but most likely the spread stays at 3 anyway. Just in case, lock it in. Play of The Day
Units: Double Play= 13.2 Units to win 12. .3
|New Orleans Saints||1–3||0–2||-4||-5.5||-4.5||-5.5||38%|
New Orleans gave it their best shot last week in London but the injuries were just too much for them to overcome. Alvin Kamara should be back this week and it’s unclear who will return with him just yet.
Geno Smith and the Seahawks are surprising many people including us at Las Vegas NFL Odds. We had the Seahawks finishing dead last in the NFL with the Texans.
That still might happen but they look like they have some fight in them. They play the Saints this week and probably won’t be able to run the football too well, so Geno is going to have to do some damage against a tough secondary.
The line shot up in a hurry and maybe they have some inside information on the injury report. Not too much action on this game but people are definitely taking Seattle as they’re starting to become fan favorites.
We’re going with who we feel is the better team again. The line movent is appropriate and no obvious advantage set up so we think this is a good spot for the Saints. We will keep it as a regular play or even half play but we can feel ok knowing we’re on the side with the better football team, the better coached team and the fans will be pumped up for this one.
The better team obviously doesn’t always win but we really like this spot for the Saints. We’re going to place this one with Bovada because it has the Saints at -5 with -110 juice.
Final Pick: Saints-4.5. you might want to take this now just in case it moves up. We dont think it will get to 4.
Units: Regular Play 6.6 Units.
|New York Jets||2–2||0–2||44.5||44.5||45||45.5||20%|
The Jets already broke our heart once this year and we might be falling for it again here. Who wouldn’t take the Dolphins to win only by a field goal against the lowly jets. Not many, as nearly all the money is on Miami and they are one of the most bet teams this week.
Teddy Bridgewater has shown he can get wins in the NFL and we do like their toughness. This is a difficult game to call only because we really like the Jets and it’s always hard putting money down on the Jets.
We’re going to wait to the last minute on this one, it’s not like the lines going anywhere so we’ll see what happens. We are leaning Jets so far. Might as well light our money if we do it. Division game at home, you never know but Vegas does come out nicely if Jets can cover 3 points.
If it doesn’t go to 4 thats actually a really good sign for the Jets.
Leaning Jets but can’t pull the trigger yet. Ok lets do it for half a play.
Final Pick: New York Jets + 3.5
Units= 3.3 for a half play.
Pittsburgh Steelers are just not the same without defensive star TJ Watt. Without him being out there the Steelers cannot get any pressure on the quarterback. Conversely they see alot of pressure on the other side of the ball because they can’t protect the quarterback.
Those two issues will be heavily on display Sunday morning because the Bills are strong in both areas. The disparity in the two teams are obvious but a 14 point spread still seems a little high. The public seems to agree as about 60% of the action is on the Steelers.
We’re not going to try to make this game too complicated. We’re taking a much better team with more action on the home dogs.
There won’t be too many times this year when the Bills will be getting less action than the opposing team.
Final Pick= We’re going bills -14
Units= 6.6 Units for a regular play.
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||2–2||0–2||-9||-9||9||-10||66%|
If you’ve been watching football for the last 20 years then you’ve seen Tom Brady play. Anyone that has seen Tom Brady play play multiple times most likely knows that he plays at his best when he’s mad, upset, doubted or challenged.
Tom Brady is emotionally going through a hard time and we are expecting him to play like he usually plays when he’s mad or doubted.
This will be the easiest game for the Bucs so far and this will be the toughest game for the Falcons, so we’ll see if Tampa Bay can cover the spread. About almost 70% of the public is betting that they will cover.
Final Pick= Tampa Bay -9. Sharps are on Tampa as well, bet it now to get 9. If not, we still like it at 10.
If it settles at 10 thats actually a really good sign for the Buccaneers. Atlanta is getting some bets which is nice.
Units= 6.6 Units for a Regular Play.
Tennessee’s likes to run the ball and control the clock, but this week they run into a team that can stop the run and will make you beat them with the pass.
Washington doesn’t have the best pass defense and will have to hold up without their best pass rusher Chase Young.
Last week the Commanders were favorites in this game and after last week they are now the underdog by 3. Both casual bettors and sharps alike have the Titans here and we think they’re both wrong. We’re going to take the Commanders and the points.
Final Pick= Washington Commanders +3.
Units= 6.6 Units for a regular play.
Will Houston get in the win column in week 5?
Probably not in Jacksonville. Jaguars are really good this year and Trevor Lawrence seems to have command of his offense.
He didn’t last week though as he struggled in the rain but won’t have that problem this week in Sunny Jacksonville Florida.
Some sharp money came in on Houston early in the week but has died down closer to the weekend and most people are obviously betting Jacksonville over the winless Texans. We think the Texans remain perfect against the spread and cover again. We won’t go crazy but do like this pick and still making it a half play.
We will revisit this one Saturady Night.
Final Pick= Houston Texans +7
Units= 3.3 Units for a half play.
Sunday Afternoon Games
|San Francisco 49ers||2-2||0–2||-5||-5||-6||-6.5||76%|
If the 49ers want to take the next step then they’re going to have to win games like this against a Carolina team that has not been able to get anything going on offense. Baker is starting to run out of time and run out of chances.
Most of the money is on San Francisco and the line is moving appropriately. It has shot up to -6.5 already and should get to 7 by game time. We like the Panthers here but just like the Jets igame t’s just too hard to pull the trigger. The Jets we pulled the trigger with the Panthers we just can’t we had to pick we will take San Francisco but we’re going to revisit this one Saturday night.
|Los Angeles Rams|
Cooper Rush probably has one more week until Dad gets back. He will be missing a handful of his teammates for this game. Jason Peters is out which will be the biggest absence and Tony Pollard is questionable with an illness.
The Super Bowl champions have beaten the Falcons and the Cardinals, have lost to the 49ers and the Bills. It’s hard to tell which side Dallas lines up on without Dak Prescott but his boys have been playing hard for him and it is tempting to take the points.
We’re going to wait to see what the line does but we’re leaning on the Rams Covering the spread.
Final Pick= Dallas Cowgirls +5.5
Units= 3.3 Units for half play
Philadelphia is the only remaining undefeated team in the league and at first glance they seem to have a mismatch here. They have been protecting well and they get out to the quarterback at a high rate. That has been a great recipe for them.
Arizona has been having a hard time blocking and could run into a big problem here. There are many injuries on both sides of the ball in this gameand we’ll go ahead and wait untill Saturday night.
Final Pick= Arizona Cardinals +5.5
Units= 6.6 Units for regular play
Sunday Night Football Gematria Free Pick
Gematria is 9-2 this year. Both losses were the Denver Broncos.
Las Vegas NFL Odds
We are having a great season and always looking to get better. Last week was our worst week at 5-6 for NFL but still finishing in the green thanks to some smart money management. During this week has also not been good so we will take it light this week and just take it a gam at a time.
We are alomost at +200 units since September 1st and having a great year and can’t expect to be hot every week so since we had a not so great week lets just be careful this weekend.
Take a look at our Daily Picks for the all major sports and every single pick we’ve made before the games this year. The handicapper stats are at the bottom of the page.
Gematria Pick Thursday Night Football= Colts at Broncos = Loss Gematria currently 9-2.(Both losses were Broncos)
Gematria Pick Sunday Night Football = Bengals at Ravens=
Gematria Pick Monday Night Football = Raiders at Chiefs
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