Let’s go! Don’t look now, we are having a great year! We’re going to give you the NFL odds and release our picks for free.
We had a good NFL week but it was our worst one so far. We were 8-4 and made 20.3 units. Every pick is made and documented at least 1 hour before the game. Usually the early morning of each game or the day before.
We’re going to post our picks for the entire week on Wednesday so we will be making some updates on here throughout the week if we don’t have a pick yet.
Read Week 4 NFL Preview for every NFL game this week.
Also check out our Handicapper Stats and Daily Picks.
Week 4 NFL Afternoon, Sunday Night and Monday Night Picks.
Thursday Night Football
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|5:15 PT Prime Video||Line||Mon||O/U||Open||Action||ML|
|Mia Dolphins 3-0||+3.5||+3.5||47.5||+1.5||53%||+150|
|Cincinnati Bengals 1-2||-3.5||-3.5||47.5||-1.5||47%||-185|
We have our early picks in at Bengals -2.5 and still like them to give the Dolphins their fist loss and cover the 4 points.
The injury concerns to Tua are what has risen this spread but it has also been because the sharps are on the Bengals.
The line has adjusted appropiately so we don’t feel like Vegas is trying to build an advantage. Let’s side with the sharps here and take the Bengals over the undefeated Dolphins.
We are going against a 35 in Gematria on a Thursday Night so lets not go crazy here. We’re going to keep it at the original units.
How many times do you think the 1972 Perfect Dolphins will be mentioned Thursday Night on Prime? Over/Under= 3.5.
Pick= Bengals -4
Friday Update: It was twice, the under hit.
|6:30 NFL Network||Line||Mon||O/U||Open||Action||ML|
|Minnesota Vikings 2-1||-3||-2.5||44||-3||88%||-145|
|New Orleans Saints 1-2||43.5||+2.5||44||+3||12%||+120|
Whoa! Everybody is betting on the Vikings. Then they’re calling everybody they know and telling them to bet Vikings as well.
Usually this would be a most likely fade of the public but we have seen the sportsbooks pay the public in London games.
London might be giving some New Orleans love as we get closer to game time because the Saints have been one of the favorites in England.
Vegas couldn’t control the action on this one. They wouldn’t be able to justify much higher and 3 point in a london travel game can go either way.
The Saints are 1 of the 3 teams that are yet to cover and nobody wants any part of them this week. They are not nearly as bad as most think they are. (The other 2 not to cover yet are the Raiders and Patriots).
Saints can stop the run and have playmakers on defense. Winston played much better last week and we believe they will eventually get it going.
Will it start in London?
This game will probably be a no play, but we are leaning towards Vikings and the public winning this game. We are not excited to bet a team that will be the only game on, with one sided action.
If we had to pick now it would be a no play but leaning on the square play Vikings.
Most likely a no play because we won’t feel comfortable siding with the most bet team of the week when they are the only game at that time. Most likely not happening.
The under is something to think about, we will revisit.
Saturday Update: Unfortunately this will be a no play. We are not excited about picking a team with 90% of the money on them and who knows what it is in England. We also don’t love all the injuries for the Saints.
If this was a must-play then we would go Vikings-3. If you are going to bet and need a sportsbook MyBookie will double whatever you put in up to $1,000. You can play the extra $1,000 however you want and we recommend using that first.
Pick= No Pick. We’re split on this one. Vegas has given money in the past in London games more times than not. We’re sitting out, that might be the only no play of the day.Must play= Vikings
|Washington Commanders 1-2 (0-1 Away)||42.5||+3||41.5||+3||42.5||38%||+140|
|Dallas Cowboys 2-1 (1-1 Home)||-3||-3||-3||-3||42.5||62%||-154|
The Cowboys are starting to get some believers in Cooper Rush and the bandwagon is starting to get occupied.
Cooper played well last week and showed he is a better qaurterback if he’s blitzed. When blitzed he was 20-of-27, 244 yards, 2 touchdowns, 0 interceptions.
Don’t blitz this man.
Washington does like to blitz so we’ll see if they can get to him with 4 rushers. If he has time, he’s going to look good again.
On the other side Washington hasn’t been able to protect Carson Wentz at all. He was sacked 8 times vs the Eagles and now faces one of the best pass rushes in the league. This might be a long night.
Most fans know this, why would the line only be 3?
The odds makers could’ve easily made this -5 or -6 and that line would get close to even action. Putting the line at 3 gaurantees a little more action on the Cowboys without too much attention being drawn because of the Cooper Rush excuse.
If we went with a matchup pick then it would be the Cowboys all day, but we’re not.
We are going with the line read. Las Vegas and online sports books had an oppurtunity to get even money and chose not to.
When action started coming in on the Cowboys they did absolutely nothing. They seem very satisfied where the line is now and are are now siding with the Redskins.
Let’s follow them here. I know its tough to bet the Redskins, Commanders sorry, but Vegas set up an advantage so let’s roll with them on this one.
Commanders it is, +3. Ouch, there’s going to be a few more nasty ones like this one coming up so brace yourself this week.
Pick= Commanders +3 3.3 Units, half play.
|Cleveland Browns 2-1 (0-1 Away)||-3||-2.5||N/A||-1.5||50||48%||-120|
|Atlanta Falcons 1-2 (0-1 Home)||46.5||48||N/A||+1||50||52%||+112|
Cleveland is the much better team. Not even close, really.
Ok, what the heck is going on?
Are we supposed to believe that more people are betting the Atlanta Falcons than the Browns?
The line went from 3 to 1.5 when news came out about Myles Garrets car accident that might put him out this week.
Myles is Clevelands’ best player and if he plays, Atlanta will have a long night due to their below average offensive line.
We feel like Cleveland is by far the better team but we smell Mafia.
Mafia is present in this game and even though they’re telling us its even action we’re going to go on the Falcons again.
We have bet Atlanta all 3 weeks so far and have been right all 3 weeks. They are 1 of 4 teams undefeated against the spread.
With Mafia games we always wait untill the last day so we’ll make our final pick Saturday night.
We will update Friday night and again Saturday night.
Pick= Falcons +1 =YUCK This is Al Covers Play Play of the Day!!! Yuck but its Al Covers! 9.9 Units, Big Play.
|Seattle Seahawks 1-2 (0-1 Away)||49.5||50||N/A||+4||50||45%||+225|
|Detroit Lions 1-2 (1-1 Home)||-6||-4.5||N/A||-3.5||50||55%||-244|
Match up wise, this is a huge mismatch. They are both 1-2 but in completely different ways.
The Lions were looking good against the Vikings last week untill the Deandre Swift injury happened and the offense was not the same. Swift will be out this game but they have all week to prepare for it.
They still have Jamaal Williams and that man can run the football. Couple that with the fact that Seahwaks can’t stop the run should equate for a good day for Detroit.
On the other side Detroit doesn’t play to well nagainst the run either and the Seahawks only choice is to pound the rock.
Our strong belief is that Seattle is going for the #1 pick but they will attempt to not make it look obvious.
This is Detroit’s best shot for a handful of weeks that they have at a blowout win. They are better than the Seahawks everywhere and should control this game.
We don’t expect Mafia to be present because there’s even action which has to be considered a victory for Vegas. If Vegas can get even money out of the worst team in the league then they are doing their job.
We expect this line to move down. It might be a situation where Vegas was expecting more action on the Lions and when they didn’t get it they are now adjusting.
When the line first came out we really liked the Lions. Now we want to see how the action and the line movement play out untill close to game time.
Still leaning Lions but we’ll be careful. Lets watch and notice if Media will be quite on this game or if they will be shouting Lions.
Why is the spread dropping like this? Revisit this game closer to game time.
Pick= Lions-3.5 , 3.3 Units half play.
|Tennessee Titans 1-2 (0-1 Away)||43.5||42.5||43||+4||42.5||66%|
|Indianapolis Colts 1-1-1 (1-0 Home)||-3.5||-3.5||3.5||-4||42.5||44%|
The Titans like the run the ball and the colts love to stop it, and they are both good at it.
The other side of the ball will be the difference. Colts can run the ball as well but the Titans don’t know how to stop it quite yet.
Most people think this will be a close game and we feel like Colts have a chance to showcase themselves against a pretty good team.
They will be able to run the ball which will set up Matt Ryan’s best attribute in the play action plays. They’re also going to be able to contain the Titans best threat which is running the ball down teams throats.
Most people reacting to the line like they know this will be close. What do the sportbooks do?
The line moves up. This line might go to 4 with more sharp money about to come in. If your with us and like the Colts, then lets make our move now.
Bovada is one of the few books that still has this at -3. Let’s jump on it. If you don’t have Bovad yet then use this bonus with promo code.
We get a little credit so we appreciate it. We completely vouch for Bovada in that they always pay on time and they have great rewards and bonuses. They are the #1 Sportsbook in the United States.
Let’s go Colts -3. Bovada
Saturady Update: Everyone has it at 3.5 now, we still like it or you can buy the half point at Bovada.
Pick= Colts-3.5 Small Play for 3.3 units.
Best Bonus and Sportsbook Recommendations
|Chicago Bears 2-1 (0-1 Away)||+3||39.5||39||39||39.5||49%|
|New York Giants 2-1 (1-1 Home)||-3||-3||-3||-3.5||39.5||51%|
We know the Bears are going to try to run the ball. They are using Justin fields as little as possible to protect him from thier own offensive line.
The Giants are 28th vs the rush and this will be the determining factor of the game. Can they stop the run?
We say yes, which will force Fields to air it out. If that happens we like the Giants chances
We were expecting the Giants to get more action than they are which is a good thing because we like New York in this spot.
This line will move up to 4 soon as most books already have it at 3.5. This is another one where Bovada comes in handy as they are one of the few that still has it at -3.
Ok it looks like we’re going New York, but we’re going small. We feel like the Giants are the better team and with even money on the game and not much hype, we’re in. Half play though.
Pick= Giants-3 4.4 Units, smaller play.
|Jacksonville Jaguars 2-1 (1-1 Away)||47.5||48.5||45.5||48.5||48.5||56%||+240|
|Philadelphia Eagles 3-0 (1-0 Home)||-7||-6.5||-6.5||-6.5||48.5||44%||-303|
If there was an MVP given after 3 weeks it would be Lamar Jackson or Jalen Hurts. With him playing like he has the Eagles will be one of the best teams in the league.
It doesn’t seem like the public realizes how good the Eagles are yet. This happens every year and we’re able to get a couple easy weeks.
Jaguars are better than last year and Trevor Lawrence obviously improved a lot.
We need to keep watching this one and come back to pick in a couple of days.
We don’t love this play but feel like the Eagles are the right side here.
It will be a small play but give us the Eagles.
Pick= Eagles 6.5 3.3 Units, half play.
|New York Jets 1-2 (1-0 Away)||41.5||41.5||41.5||+3.5||41.5||35%||+150|
|Pittsburgh Steelers 1-2 (0-1 Home)||-3.5||-3.5||-3.5||-3.5||41.5||65%||-185|
Lean: Jets again, uh-oh. I hate when we have the Jets. I really do. Might as well just light your money on fire, right?
Not necessarily, they lost to the Ravens and the Bengals and barely beat the Browns. Those are 3 pretty tough teams.
Pittsburgh is tough but not very good. Jets can actually win this game. Its a decent matchup for them, they have two stud cornerbacks and can stop the run.
This ones on you guys, we don’t want to bet Jets again and Steelers arn’t the best investment either.
Let’s just wait and see what happens, for now this game isn’t very enticing to bet.
Pick= No Pick. Maybe the Over 41
Game of the AM
|Buffalo Bills 2-1 (1-1 Away)||-3||-3.5||-3||-3.5||52||48%||-189|
|Baltimore Ravens 2-1 (0-1 Away)||53.5||52||51||+3.5||52||52%||+155|
Bills lost last week to the Dolphins without 7 of their starters. They’ll be much healthier this week.
Josh Allen coming off a loss is not a bad play. He is an elite qaurterback and shouldn’t have too many back to back losses in the course of his career.
Ravens at home should get enough action to keep it even money.
The line could is going to stay put at 3. This is a tough game but with even action we feel comfortable taking the Bills.
Going Bills-3. Small Play for 3.3 Units, small. Not too confident, lets hedge this with Ravens in some parlays with Falcons Panthers 49ers and Buccaneers.
|Los Angeles Chargers 1-2 (0-1 Away)||-6.5||-5.5||-6||-5.5||44.5||60%|
|Houston Texans 0-2 (1-0 Home)||46.5||44.5||45||+5.5||44.5||40%|
The Chargers were demolished last week by the Jaguars and it didn’t look good at any point. They had key injuries including a hurt Justin Herbert that played visibly limited.
Chargers are one of the more talented teams in the league and the Texans are one of the least. If were going to bet on matchups then there is no choice here.
The spread doesn’t bother us, its the reverse line movement from the public action that bothers us. Do you smell that?
We think we smell Mafia which means we will make a play on this the night before.
Pick= Chargers-5.5 4.4 Units, smaller than a regular play.
Sunday Afternoon and Prime Time Games
Now it’s time for the afternoon and the prime time games. Plenty of close spread games which have historically been our best days in the past. We feel like we’re going to have another great NFL week.
Make sure you have a few sportsbooks to take advantage of all the odds. Also take advantage of the SportsBook Promos and Promo Codes.
Thats it for the morning games, now the late games.
Week 4 Afternoon, Sunday Night and Monday Night Footbal Picks Against the Spread.
Leave a comment and let us know what games you like? Which ones are you following us?
Morning Final Picks
|NFL||10-2||10AM||JAX @ PHI -6.5||A.Covers||PHI-6.5||3.3|||||||
|NFL||10-2||10AM||SEA @ DET -3.5||R.Vegas||DET -3.5||3.3|||||||
|NFL||10-2||10AM||WSH @ DAL -3||A.Covers||WSH+3||3.3|||||||
|NFL||10-2||10AM||CLE -1 @ ATL||A.Covers||ATL +1.5||9.9|||||||
|NFL||10-2||10AM||LA-5.5 @ HOU||R.Vegas||LA-5.5||4.4|||||||
|NFL||10-2||10AM||BUF @ BALT||R.Vegas||Buf-3||3.3|||||||
|NFL||10-2||10AM||CHI @ NYG -3||R.Vegas||NYG-3||4.4|||||||
|NFL||10-2||10AM||Ten @ IND-3.5||A.Covers||IND-3.5||3.3|||
Daily Picks and Handicapper Stats