We are teaching sports betting for free as we go. We’re looking at the NFL odds week 1.Started off to a 8-0 start all with college football. NFL is our money sport. We previously did step three for the morning games and now we’re going to do Sunday afternoon, Sunday night, and Monday night games.
There were plenty of games that we had to keep an eye on for Sunday morning games and now we will check out the rest of the games. We expect Las Vegas to do well in the opening week, they always do. Although last year they didn’t do as well as they usually do in week 1’s.
The public will most likely be trying to play catch up and get their money back in the afternoon games. This is where we often see Las Vegas trying to get the advantage, and pick up some extra. This is where we join them.
Our goal here for step 3 is just to notice the line movements since they opened in May we have an extra advantage. If we have any observations of the public reactions and see if anything looks fishy or interesting then we flag it. Usually if it’s obvious and it’s kept that way, there’s a very good reason why Las Vegas would do that. Let’s take a look at what we got.
U.S Sports Betting September Promotions and Current Odds.
Sunday Afternoon
New York Giants+5.5 (-110) +200 AT Tennessee Titans+5.5 (-110) -240 O/U 43.5 (-110)
This one looks interesting right off the bat. Line opened up in May and stayed the same at 6.5 until August when it moved to six. In the recent days it has moved to -5.5.
There has been sharp money on Giants with heavy money but most of the action still remains on the Titans. Most of the casual betters love Tennessee but Vegas could be feeding the casual betters in the early weeks like they sometimes do with certain games. This feels like that type of game.
We have reverse line movement here but nothing crazy and it is New York after all. Las Vegas odds makers usually accommodate for the New York attention so this movement is understandable. This is an afternoon game and we will most likely see more movement. The Giants don’t seem like a bad underdog here, they’re worth taking a look at.
Kansas City Chiefs.-4.5 (-110) -200 AT Arizona Cardinals +4.5 (-110) +170 O/U 53.5 (-110)
Chiefs -4.5. That’s probably what it should’ve opened up at to get even action. We might get even action from here on out. It didn’t start off that way as Chiefs were getting most of the bets especially when they opened up at -3 and just recently moved to four, now 4.5. We most likely will see this line get up to 5 maybe 6 but most likely 5.5 which seems about right. Not much to read so far but let’s keep looking.
Green Bay Packers -1.5 (-110) -125 AT Minnesota Vikings +1.5 (-110) +105 O/U 48.0 (-110)
Division rivalry game in opening week, so it’s understandable. Right?
Packers are one of the Super Bowl favorites and probably won’t be seeing too many close lines like this throughout the season. Well, maybe if they lose here.
The line hasn’t moved too much. Opened up at 1.5, moved as high as 2.5, and has come back down to its original number. You can probably guess who’s getting most of the action. The stats tell us that the action is on Green Bay close to 60% but we find that hard to believe. Sometimes they don’t tell us the whole truth, OK most of the time.
Something is fishy here. We smell mafia as Al Covers would say. You’ll be hearing from him later on in the week when it’s time to make Picks.
Possible Double Dip Parlay Play
Las Vegas Raiders +3.0 (EVEN) +150 AT Los Angeles Chargers -3.0 (-120) -175 O/U 52.0 (-110)
This game might be the best game of the day. A rematch of Chargers disappointing last second loss to the Raiders on the last game of the season. Chargers had a chance to get in the playoffs but lost a heart breaker. Now is there chance to avenge that game.
Both teams got a fair share of hype this off season, the Chargers probably slightly more. Casual fans seem to believe in the Raiders as well per usual. Raiders always get a little more action than they probably should and they seem to be getting a little more action here.
We know right off the bat this is a good spot for the Chargers. We don’t expect the line to move too much, actually we don’t expect the lines to move at all, but we’ll see. We don’t like to pick games early in the week but this one looks like it could be used as a double dip parlay situation. We will go over the double dip parlay play at handicapper school on Wednesday but it’s basically setting up an afternoon play that you’re going to play anyway.
Sunday Night
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1.5 (-110) +105 AT Dallas Cowboys-1.5 (-110) -125 O/U 50.0 (-110)
OK this is a great matchup. Most people, including us, have Tampa Bay to win the NFC this year. We absolutely believe that will happen, but they might not have a great start. 
We also believe the Cowgirls are going to be pretty good this year. Cowgirls are at home for the opener and we won’t be trusting the percentage stats of wagers on this game. This will be the highest bet game of the week. We can assume Vegas would like an advantage here. Appears like they’ve been setting it up all offseason for the Cowgirls here.
Las Vegas will most likely have a good day and will have the opportunity to cap off with a big bang here. Sunday nights are usually the clean up money games for Vegas. This one should be exactly that, and exciting.
Not too much line movement in this game and it stayed below the key number of three. We could assume most of the money is going to come in on the Bucs and we’re also predicting some heavy hype from the media this week. Keep your eyes peeled for consensus of how they’re gonna win or if everyone’s picking them to win.
Homework is to pay attention to the talking heads explain this game throughout week. These games are the ones we have to win. We should be able to read the lines, read the media and the public perception to win a game like this. Let’s go. Leave a comment if you notice the hype going in any direction. Especially early in the week.
Monday Night
Denver Broncos -6.5 (-110)-250 AT Seattle Seahawks +6.5 (-110) +210 O/U 42.0 (-110)
Monday Night Football! Denver broncos have to win by more than a touchdown against what’s supposed to be one of the worst teams in the league. That seems easy enough. Right?
Russell Wilson faces his old team and has a chance to really stick it to them. When the line opened up at 4.5 it did seem fishy or as Al Covers would say again “Mafia.”
Action is coming in on Denver obviously and the line has adjusted a little bit, but we can’t say appropriately. This game would have got even even action at the key number of 7 or even higher. Vegas seems perfectly happy keeping it under the key number.
Denver to win by a touchdown seems like a easy play for Monday night football the only game of the night. Vegas will win big-time if Denver doesn’t cover. Seattle might be in for a treat, either way let’s wait to see what the line does.
Step 3 Accomplished
Well ladies and gentlemen that was step three,, pretty simple huh? Remember step one is to always be in a good mood when reading lines or picking games and step two is to have your money management set for the week. You should not be deciding how much you’re going to bet how much you’re going to wager each play, it should already be decided.
Too many times we notice people changing their mind at the last minute or changing their wagers at the last minute. That should never be the case. Have your set money management plan in place before reading any lines or picking any games. Just that alone will help you tremendously.
Next we will do step three for the college football games on that start on Friday and 80 games on Saturday! We started off college football an amazing 8-0 and keep it going this week. We’re going to stay with the same method which is simply reading the lines. We will save all the other methods to after we noticed any patterns happening.
Let us know if you have any questions, comments, suggestions or observations.
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Betting is not my forte.
I remember that I had a high school classmate who won a lot on sports bets, on football.
I knew from my father and I didn’t want to get involved.
You could play for a little money, but some spent huge sums to have better chances.
So here too, all the information about the teams, about the previous direct games, is speculated.
It is quoted, it is speculated… I was a big fan of football.
But I haven’t mastered this betting thing.
I respect you
Vasile,
Hi Vasile, yes I understand it’s not most people’s forte. It is all speculation except for one very important part…. $$$ Vegas is going to win and they like money.The trick is to side with Vegas. If your interested continue to read because I’m here to help.
Hey thanks for this post!
Pretty useful information all in one
Definitely want to check out the cow girls whilst my brother is probably already booked for Sunday afternoons!
I was just wondering if this will be broadcasted anywhere for people from England or that live in England because you see we’re on a holiday however wouldn’t want to miss out on anything exciting!
Ha! Cowgirls!! I was just having a good time. Tell your brother he’s going to have a fun year! Cowboys are going to be really good this year. They might upset our Super Bowl pick in week 1. We’ll see
Yes England has been big on broadcasting the games the last couple years. On Fridays they televise a show with Laura Woods and former NFL player Jason Bell on ITV. They will get you ready for the games.
Sunday if you don’t have the NFL Pass then SKY SPORTS NFL Channel is the place to watch. Cowboys are a favorite in the UK. All Monday Night Football games are on Channel 5.