Are you ready for some football!?
If you want to learn how to win and make money while you learn than your in the right place. Absolutely free. We started off college football 8-0. College football money pays the juice money for NFL plays. NFL is what we’re here to do. We will take an early look at the NFL lines week 1 for our step 3 preview.
Current Odds and Sports Betting Promotions.
As discussed in previous articles we will start off the first couple weeks conservative to make sure we start off with house money. Thanks to college we have an early headstart. If you missed, don’t worry this is the real money time anyway. Heres are picks before the games to our 8-0 start. Here you will learn more about the beginning stages.
We want you to notice that every game is different but one thing will always remain the same. If we notice Vegas is building an advantage or just walked into one, then those are the ones we think about siding with. Our goal is to be on the Vegas side.
We will start with the first three steps we mentioned briefly in other articles. We will discuss this extensively on Wednesday for the first day of Handicapping School but today we will just be doing step 3. Handicapping school will be every Wednesday and Friday. .
The NFL bets will be from 3%-20% depending on your bankroll, we mentioned it but this number should be set for the week until we adjust next wee. College was 1-10%. We will also only be picking games from line reads the first two weeks.
After the first two weeks we should pick up some patterns and decide which method to use. The Gematria method will definetly be one of our main strategies with Al Covers on the team. Gematria has been most consistent the last decade. If your interested in Gematria your going to want to check out Zachary Hubbard the original gangster of Gematria in sports.
Let’s get started for our quick Monday preview of how to line read.
Thursday Night Football
9/8/22 5:20 PM PT
Buffalo Bills -2.5 (-110)- 135 . AT. Los Angeles Rams +2.5 (-110) +115 O53.0 (-105) U53.0 (-115) NBC
Wow! What a way to start off the season. We have the Super Bowl favorites playing the Super Bowl champions to start the race for Super Bowl 57. Reading the line has been difficult on opening day the last few years because Las Vegas usually plays the part.
The Rams open up as a one point favorite and action started coming in on Buffalo right away. We saw the line adjusted appropriately and there is some action coming in on the champs as well. Vegas will come out a winner on this one either way with the juice and extra bets.
The over does seem a little high for an opening game but these offenses are supposed to be explosive and people love betting the over on night games.
9/11/22 9:00 AM
Baltimore Ravens -7.0 (-110) -290 AT New York Jets +7.0 (-110) +240 O44.5 (-110)
-7 only? Vegas could’ve got closer to double digits on this one. If you think -7 is too low this line actually opened up at -4.5 in May and didn’t really start moving until July. Casual betters and sharps both pounded Ravens to win by more than four and the sports books weren’t racing to change the number.
As we get closer in August the line moved to seven and hasn’t changed since. It probably won’t change off the key number but if it does, it will go up. If you’re thinking of the suprise contender Jets then let’s wait till closer to gametime to see how many points we can get. Somethings fishy here, this one we watch closely this week.
Cleveland Browns +2.5 (-110) +120 AT Carolina Panthers +2.5 (-110) -2.5 (-110) -140 O/U 41.5 (-110)
The revenge game for Baker Mayfield. Schedule makers didn’t waste any time for this one.
Baker is on a mission this year to prove Cleveland made a mistake when they picked the prettier girl to lead their team. Even win that pretty girl is probably a sexual predator. We knew since the trade that the predator would miss sometime this season. So we already knew that he was going to miss this game.
The line still moved like crazy. This is one of the biggest line movements of the week. Cleveland opened up at -4.5 in May and stayed that way in June. Now, Carolina is 2.5 favorites and will probably get to three by game time.
The money is definitely coming in on Carolina and doesn’t seem to be slowing down. It will be hard to get through the key number of three so the line will probably settle there pretty soon and stay that way until kickoff. This is a game Vegas could Steer either way and it appears like they’re steering towards getting action on Carolina.
At the same time it’s not like they had much choice considering Carolina wasn’t very good last year and it’s not like people think they’re going to be very good this year. Panthers are one of our surprise teams this year so getting Carolina at -2 is appealing.
Indianapolis Colts -8.0 (-110) -380 AT Houston Texans +8.0 (-110) +290 O/U 46.0 (-110)
Not much line movement on this one. It opened up at 7.5, moved to 8.5 in August and has settled right at 8. The line should move a bit higher with more action coming in on the Colts but not much if any.
Let’s be honest, can you imagine anyone rushing to bet Houston on this one? Might as well light your money on fire.
Placing the Colts at -10 would be a stretch but Houston is supposed to be one of the worst teams in the league. It is opening day and they are the highest line of the week so it’s hard to blame them either way. We don’t expect much movement because they would have done it already but let’s watch it just in case.
Jacksonville Jaguars +3.0 (-110) +135 AT Washington Commanders -3.0 (-110) -160 O/U 44.0 (-110)
Two of the bottom teams in the league. Can’t expect much more than the home team getting -3 and calling it a day. Pretty honest line with no movement off the key number 3.
A little more action is coming in on the Redskins but not by an overwhelming amount. We don’t expect this line to move if it does it will go up.
New England Patriots +3.0 (-105) +135 AT Miami Dolphins -3.0 (-115) -160 O/U 47.0 (-110)
Another game not much to do with. Opening day with division rivals, put the home team at -3 and Call it a day. Similar to the last game where the home favorite are getting a little more action than the road dog. Also similar in the fact that the line did not move off the key number and will stay that way till game time.
The media has been hyping up Miami in the off-season and hyping down New England. Vegas probably could’ve gotten away with a bit more but Ok, we’ll go with three for now Vegas.
New Orleans Saints- 5.5 (-110) -230 AT Atlanta Falcons +5.5 (-110) +190 O/U 42.5 (-110)
-5? Saints are supposed to be pretty good this year and the Falcons are supposed to be one of the worst. -5?
OK yes opening week and division rivals but the line opened up at -3.5. Who would take Falcons +3.5.? Anybody?
The line has obviously been pouring in on the Saints but most sites are trying to tell us that we’re getting even money on this game. That is kind of hard to believe because the Falcons are supposed to be so bad and the Saints are supposed to make a move this year.
If you have any observations on this game please let us know. Thank you.
Philadelphia Eagles +4.0 (-110) +170 AT Detroit Lions-4.0 (-110) -200 O/U 48.5 (-110)
This line seems good at -4 although we’ll see if it moves up like it should. Money coming in on Eagles should move up this line a tad before gametime. The movement will give us a tip and tell us part of the story, stay tuned.
Pittsburgh Steelers +6.5 (-110) +220 AT Cincinnati Bengals -6.5 (-110) -270 O/U 44.0 (-110)
Absolutely no line movement here. This game has stayed completely still, opened up at 6.5 and is now 6.5 right under the key number.
Pittsburg is always going to play tough but most people aren’t picking them to do anything this year and they have to face the AFC champions in the very first week. Most people of course are going to take the Bengals to win by a touchdown and Las Vegas appears to be perfectly fine with that.
San Francisco 49ers-7.0 (-110) -300 AT Chicago Bears +7.0 (-110) +250 O/U 41.5 (-110)
OK this is how you set a line Vegas. The sports books in the online sites are supposed to set lines to get even money from the public. That doesn’t always happen but on this one it did. Chicago supposed to be one of the worst teams in the league and the Niners could be a contender if Trey Lance has a pretty good year. This game has been even action and has stayed still for the most part. This would be a matchup game or a value game if we weren’t just sticking to line reading the first week.
Check For Line Altering News on 1st Level
Our job here for step 3 s just to notice any advantage Las Vegas is setting up so we can side with them. That’s all we are just observing here.
Now we will do a quick review of the morning games to see if we missed any line altering news. We check to see if there’s any key injuries or key hold outs that would affect the line. We’re going to do that now and we will come back tonight where we will finish the third step of Sunday afternoon games Sunday afternoon, Sunday night and Monday night games.the Sunday afternoon games to finish the
Green Bay Packers -1.5 (-110) -125 AT Minnesota Vikings +1.5 (-110) +105 O/U 48.0 (-110)
Kansas City Chiefs.-4.5 (-110) -200 AT Arizona Cardinals +4.5 (-110) +170 O/U 53.5 (-110)
Las Vegas Raiders +3.0 (EVEN) +150 AT Los Angeles Chargers -3.0 (-120) -175 O/U 52.0 (-110)
New York Giants+5.5 (-110) +200. AT Tennessee Titans+5.5 (-110) -240 O/U 43.5 (-110)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1.5 (-110) +105 AT Dallas Cowboys-1.5 (-110) -125 O/U 50.0 (-110)
Denver Broncos -6.5 (-110)-250 AT Seattle Seahawks +6.5 (-110) +210 O/U 42.0 (-110)
Any questions, comments, or game observations please let us know.
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6 thoughts on “NFL Lines Week 1 – Football Betting”
Thank you for this post over the NFL lineups. It seems like it’s going to be a pretty exciting first game yeah? The fact that the favorite to win is playing against the champions. I find this to be pretty fun and I can’t wait to see who wins. I’ll be honest,. Kinda hoping (and don’t hate me for it haha) the Rams will win, however my bet is on Buffalo as well. I guess time will tell hahah
It’s going to be very exciting, I can’t wait for it to be official. That is funny huh? the champions are the underdog, ohh I’ll look up that stat. I’m curious how many times the champions opened up as dogs.Rams might win, we still haven’t made a pick yet. It’s too early for us to make a pick. We need to see the line move and which way the media decides to steer. It might be a no play, just watch but either way it will be fun! So Jessie’s got the Rams at So Fi Stadium!!
Thanks for laying this all out. Following the Vegas sheets can be really complicated, but you have set out 1 game at a time. The first game is amazing, but I would give the edge to the Bills. Although I think most defending champs over the last 10 years winner the next season opener, I think the Bills have the better defense and are hungrier. Thanks for laying out the games as you have.
Alright Anastazja!! I’ll put you down for the Bills -2.5.
it only feels complicated right now. Keep reading, you’ll be alright in no time.
Yes Super Bowl Champs are 7-3 ATS the last 10 years, 8-3 the last 11.
I guess the first week of the NFL is always kind of hard to predict the winners. This year is no different. However, I can’t wait to see some football from the NFL.
Last Saturday was exciting with the college football underway. There were some great games played last week and some were not so exciting. But glad that football is back.
If I were to bid on any of this game, should I trust Vegas or just go with my best instinct? Anyway, nice post!
I can’t wait either Vai. Very Excited!
Remember, we’re not trying to predict the games. We are reading the lines and picking the games we can side with Vegas for the first two weeks.
Keep reading we’re about to get in to the Gematria and numbers portion of picking games.
Yes you can trust Vegas to be Vegas if you know what I mean, they are really good at what they do. Because of that, no you should not go with your “best instinct”. If anything you should bet against your “best instinct”.
Keep reading Vai, we have some interesting info coming up.