Well, do we have your attention yet? We had a great beginning to the college football season starting off 5–0. Old Dominion pulled out a victory at the very end to get us our first win of the day and then TCU covered the 14 winning 38–13 in Colorado. Today we will discuss College Football TV and which games we can side with Vegas.
We started off with one percent wagers and are now in the green 4.6%. Now the main focus is to protect and increase the house money. Yesterday we did the first three steps of picking games. There were a few games that stood out so we’re going to take a look at those today.
Keep It Going
The fourth step will be to take a quick glance at tomorrow’s games to see what we got ahead of us as well. Then we will do a quick review of yesterday’s games and see what we did right and what we did wrong. We were 2-0 so just a quick review in the middle probably. We will start off in the morning.
Tomorrow there is one game at 4:30 PM between Florida State and LSU at the Caesars Super dome in New Orleans Louisiana. LSU is favored by 3.5 which seems about right. No obvious line read on this one so it doesn’t look like we will have a double dip parlay situation. We will take another look closer to game time.
There is also one Monday between the #4 Clemson Tigers at the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. Clemson is a 23 point favorite and nothing screams at us yet. Another wait till game day game.
No double dip parlay action this week which is OK, we only have 4.6%. Remember we only do parlays and prop bets with house money.
OK here we go! Nothing stood out for the 9 o’clock games but let’s take a quick review anyways.
Michigan is favored by 31 points and most of the money is coming in on the Wolverines but the line movement is adjusting properly and it’s not like Vegas had much of a choice. If they made that line 36, Michigan would still get the action. It’s tempting but let’s protect our lead.
Boston College game looks interesting at BC -7.5. This is another one that Vegas didn’t have much of a choice. BC will get majority of the bets either way anywhere from -5 to -9. The sports books didn’t have much choice but to put it at the key number of seven. With bets coming in on Boston College the line is moving up appropriately. Tempting for Boston College but no play is the call.
For all you college fans that are really good with knowing the teams and the matchups this is going to be your game. We are going to sit this one out but if you’re really good with matchups take a look at this game and see what you think.
For us this week we are just sticking to reading the lines so we’re laying off this one as well. As we are talking and typing the line just moved to 9. Boston College should cover but let’s lay off. Morning off ladies and gentlemen. Let’s start off on level 2.
Level 1 morning bye.
Level two starts at 12:30 PM with 18 games before we get to level three. They were a few games that we spotted from yesterday so let’s take a look now.
The first game of the day to watch will be #11 Oregon versus #3 Georgia in the Chick-Fil-A kickoff game. Georgia is favored by 16.5. OK everybody knows Georgia is extremely good but most people figure Oregon might be able to hang so was 16.5 really necessary?
A key number placement would’ve seemed ideal here for the sports books. That way line movement wouldn’t be a factor unless they had to adjust from heavy action. Hopefully this is not a theme for the rest of the day but we’re gonna lay off here too.
Oklahoma game is similar to the Michigan game where it didn’t matter where the line was money would be coming in on the home ranked favorite regardless. That makes the line hard to read so we will skip the Oklahoma game as well.
OK finally here we go we got one!
Houston only at -4 at University Texas of San Antonio. Houston is #24 in the nation to start off the year and they will be playing at the Alamodome in San Antonio Texas. UTSA is listed at home but Houston fans will flood the stadium with red. Houston will be the home team here, no question.. UTSA was very good last year finishing 12-2 and they could very much hang with a great team like Houston.
Houston is obviously getting most of the action and Las Vegas isn’t doing a darn thing about the line. They would have received even action at -6 or even -7 but released the line at -4 and have done nothing about it since. This is definitely worth a 1% play on the underdogs. Let’s go Road Runners!
So first pick of the day is not an easy one. It’s definitely an ugly one against the # 24 team in the nation. Keep in mind when we’re doing the line reading method we will have some ugly pics like this. Trust the process. If we happen to lose this game, one of the rules that will learn later is to not let it bother you. Yes, most people will tell you that this is a bad pick which we get sometimes with picks like this.
Got another one! Are we missing something here? Arizona was a horrible team last year at 1-11 overall and 1-8 in the Pac 12 conference. They were really bad.
The San Diego Aztecs were really good at 12–2 overall and 7–1 in their Mountain West Conference. What the heck is the line doing at -6.5?
So you’re telling me I can bet on a team like the Aztecs against a horrible team like Arizona and they only have to win by a touchdown!?
Red flag alert!
Does anybody else find this strange?
Ladies and gentlemen Las Vegas knows something. Should we join them or fight them?
Let’s join them, it might be a tough, scary pick but we have to go Arizona here. If we’re just reading the lines then we don’t have a choice, Let’s go Wildcats.
Most books are going to have +6.5 and we are going to recommend to buy the half point. It will cost you some juice but getting the key number at seven is huge here so let’s buy a little insurance.
OK two crazy picks in the books. If we miss both we are still in the house money 2.6% so let’s keep going.
The Tulsa versus Wyoming game looks pretty interesting at first glance but Las Vegas didn’t really have a choice on that one either so we’re going to lay off. Looks like that’s it for level two and we have two crazy unpopular picks. This should be interesting, OK lets go to level three.
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The first one is Utah at Florida. It’s interesting because a #17 playing an unranked team is only favored by -2.5. That’s always worth taking a look.
This one is a little different because it’s Florida and they are at home. Since we are only line reading this week, there’s just not enough information for this one. It will be lots of fun to watch but no action here.
OK #20 Kentucky is favored 14.5 at home versus Miami of Ohio. Seems like Kentucky could be a little more favored here a but the public is gonna be all over them either way so we can’t blame Vegas here. No play.
One game that stands out but we won’t be pulling the trigger is South Carolina favored by 11 . Money is going to come in on South Carolina regardless so another similar no play.
it’s hard not to notice Liberty only a 3 point favorite at Southern Miss. Liberty was a betting favorite last year and to start the year off against a team that’s not so great team we were expecting a much higher. At least closer to seven.
Action is coming in on liberty quietly and Vegas seems happy with it. Yes we wish these games weren’t so ugly but we do have another ugly one here. We are going to side with Vegas and take the University of Southern Mississippi. Let’s go Golden Eagles!
That’s play #3. Remember we are up 4.6% and played 3% so far.
Tulane is a big favorite verses Massachusetts at -28.5. Another one were Vegas didn’t have a much of a choice, Tulane should cover but enough people are on them that we’re going to lay off.
The best game to watch on level three will probably be Notre Dame at Ohio State. #2 team in the nation hosts the fighting Irish. The buckeyes are 16.5 favorites.
Well Vegas is getting even action on the game, maybe a little more on the ducks. Why not 14 here? Or 13? Ducks have always been a fan favorite since the 2000s and always get a little more action than they should.
Vegas usually accommodates but they didn’t hear. Yes we realize they’re going against Georgia but still kind of fishy . We are going to keep an eye on this game and make a decision as we get closer to Game time but we are heavily leaning Georgia -16.
2 Plays on level 2 and 1 play on level 3. Let’s go to level 4.
OK, last level. First three levels we have three games so even if we lose all three we will still be in the house money going into level four.
The last level of a packed football day like this is always great for line reading. Especially as we get closer to the game we should be able to pick up a read.
What usually happens is the casual fans usually have a not so good day and Vegas usually has a great day. Night games are the chance for the gamblers to make their money back so they usually bet bigger than they have been all day.
This is a great opportunity to side with Vegas, let’s see what we have.
Las Vegas didn’t have much of a choice making Washington -22.5 so nothing exciting there.
Oregon State at -2 at home does look a little suspicious as well. Boise State is getting some love and they probably should’ve been a short favorites. Week one and short favorites makes a little more difficult but let’s keep our eye on Oregon State to see if the line moves throughout the day. We will make a decision closer to game time.
3 Picks So Far – Check Back 7PM PT
So we won’t have any double dip parlay opportunities for level four. Now we will wait till closer to game time to see if we will make a fifth play. If not a day is over with four placed wagers on four levels.
We are still guaranteed house money going into Sunday.
Remember, our goal for college football is just to get on base. No need to try to hit home runs. We will have plenty of home runs in the NFL this year. We will use college football to earn our juice money for the NFL. Our goal is to stay nice and easy, positive and observant of the lines or line movements. Let’ Go!!!
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Update 7PM: 3-0 Today. Started off the year 8-0. Catch up tommorow for the Sunday and Monday games. Were going to be getting ready for the NFL starting Thursday night. Good night.
4 thoughts on “College Football TV Today – Free Picks”
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We are so glad to help. You came to the right place my new friend.
We will post throughout the week to show you the different steps of the process. Come game time we should have some winners picked out.
We are so pleased you found us as well because we want to help. Thank you Roopesh, talk soon.
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Your welcome Hawumba and thank you, we are here to help. Yes, extra revenue is always good!!