We will be discussing our week 5 college football picks against the spread. There are over 60 NCAAF games this week and Las Vegas NFL Odds will have plenty of action.
NCAA Football has been awesome this year! There has been some surprises and good money has already been made.
We are on a roll, doing good. Let’s keep on picking winners in College Football.
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NCAAF Week 5
This week we will only review the games that we’re going to make a move on.
The part we will skip is when we go through all the games and highlight the games where the lines seem off, obvious or fishy.
Once we identify those games we will eaxamine them and see if we feel like the odds makers manipulated the line with one of their many tricks to gain an advantage.
After looking at media and public perception along with matchups and injuries we will conclude if its a game we want to invest in.
We have 1 game on Thursday and all 5 games on Friday. On Saturday we should have over 10 plays between our professional handicappers.
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Let’s get started….
We have one game we really like on Thursday night. Check it out.
Utah State has lost three in a row after beating UConn in the opening week. Their first loss was to #1Alabama 55–0.
Then they lost to Weber State who is 4-0 now. Then last week Lost by 10 points to a pretty good UNLV Rebels team who is now 3-1.
We tell you this to tell you that Utah State is not that bad of a football team, but they do possess a 1–3 record.
The oddsmakers could’ve gone many different directions here actually, they had a pretty big window to work with. Nobody would’ve balked at -30 or even -21 but the key should be trying to get even money.
In order to try to get even money they probably could’ve set it at 26 or 27 but 24 is still reasonable. When the line first came out, action of course came in on #19 BYU. The line didn’t move at all until later in the week close to gametime.
Either way this is not a big advantage set up by Las Vegas but we do feel like Utah State and the points is the right play here. The adjustment late is just to make it look good and we believe they wanted to collect a little more action on BYU. We’re gonna go small on this play, take the points and call it a day.
Pick= Utah State Aggies 4.4 Units
Friday Night Football
Immediately this spread looked kind of fishy. Only because the media public and sharps all seem to respect Houston.
They always seem to get a little more action than they should and Vegas usually accommodates the line. They didn’t here.
They had an opportunity to make Houston -3, -4 maybe even -5. Houston at home to win by a field goal in the first game in the American Conference is actually enticing to most bettors.
The money is on Houston for about 67% and there has been no line movement, not even to the key number 3. That tells us Las Vegas is completely satisfied with the line and they are happy with all the money going where it’s going.
We’re only reading the lines in college football because we’re doing so good and if we’re reading the line here It’s telling us to bet on Tulane.
Most sports books have it at +2.5 and a few books let you buy the half point which we will suggest in this game. You can buy the half point and make it 3 for -120 at Bovada.
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Pick= Tulane +3 (Bovada) 2.2 Units
We like this game right away as well. We felt like Middle Tennessee should’ve been favored at home in this game. UTSA has been favored between 4 and 6 since Monday and as of this writing on Thursday afternoon they are favored by 4.5. T
he money has been coming in on Middle Tennessee since the opening of this line. The sportsbooks weren’t in a hurry to adjust the line. They did it slowly and were never in a rush to adjust, it’s almost like they finally did it for show.
If the oddsmakers felt like Middle Tennessee was going to win this game they missed out on a huge opportunity to take away some action from them.
We know Las Vegas doesn’t miss out on too many opportunities so if we lose this game we’re willing to take it on the chin.
We’re gonna have to take UTSA and try to get the best odds we can. Bovada is always a good line to look at because you can always count on them to have the average of most sportsbooks and they do in this game. They have it at -4.5 just like everybody else as of Thursday.
My bookie is one of the few that still have it at -4 and another sportsbook we highly recommend for a fast, efficient payout and good service. Here’s the great welcome bonus for my bookie and a quick review.
We feel like the line is going to continue to move up so we’re gonna take the four at my bookie now. If you miss out on the four you can always get four at the Bovada by paying a few extra dollars.
Pick= UTSA -4 2.2 Units
|San Diego State||2-2||41.5||+6.5||39||54%|
We feel like most people got scared of Boise State after losing last week to UTEP. Both teams had a disappointing start and both are 2–2 when they face off Friday night.
The odds makers set the line perfect to get even money right below the key number of seven. This is how there supposed to set lines. If they did we wouldn’t be where were at.
It doesn’t look like they tried very hard to gain an advantage when they probably could have. It is more likely they would’ve gotten an advantage if they made the spread higher rather than lower.
If the spread was higher they would get more action on San Diego State and the spread was lower we feel like they would still get about the same.
Since they could’ve gone lower and got more money on Boise State but chose not to, we are going to take that as a hint that they like Boise State to cover.
We’re going to be careful but we’re going to follow them as well. If we’re right the odds makers will try to make it look good and lower the spread slightly.
Right now most books have it at 6.5 but we feel we might be able to get it to 5.5 or maybe even five. We’re gonna wait to take Boise State for the cover.
Final Pick= Boise State -6 2.2 Units
Great matchup alert! If you like College Football this one will be must see TV.
Undefeated #15 Washington at undefeated UCLA for a Pac 12 showdown!
Both teams are 4-0 and both teams are 1-0 in the Pac 12. This is just gonna be a matchup play for us because we think UCLA is a better football team than Washington and most people don’t know it yet.
Since most people don’t know yet, the odds makers didnt even have to do anything tricky on this one. The spread is perfect, with it being under the key number 3 it didn’t really matter exactly.
We’re going to make this simple and take the home dog for a small play.
Pick= UCLA +3 2.2 Units
Last game of Friday night football! -14 is a little high but UNLV is still getting the action. The sportsbooks are moving the line appropriately and they really didn’t have a choice.
We think the sportsbooks couldn’t get away with making it much higher without being obvious. The adjustment right away off the key number lets us know they are playing it right.
We feel Vegas is going to lose a little bit on this game but it’s the last game of the night we’re going to be very careful betting on a public favorite.
Pick= UNLV -14 which you can get at Bovada or Bet Online. 2.2 Units
Saturday Morning- 1st Level
We are going to list all games that pass the line read first 3 steps. After those we will pick out games that look obvious and investigate fading that team that looks like an obvious cover.
The goal here is to see the spreads that Vegas seemed to have manipulated. If the odds makers made an advantage for themselves then we will side with Vegas and invest on that team.
Let’s do Level 1 first which is all games that start before 12:30PM. The ones we want are…
Will be updating Friday morning.
|#14 Ole Miss||4-0||-5.5||-6||54.5||31%|
Both teams are very good and we were expecting a much closer line. The line went to 7 right away telling us the sharps went very early on Ole Miss at -5.5.
The public action was pounding Kentucky at +7 and Vegas was in no hurry to pull it down. They dropped it to 6 as of Friday night in most sportsbooks to make it look appropriate.
They evened out the action the way they wanted and now it feels like a matchup play and if thats the case we feel like Kentucky will keepo it close. Keep it small. Check our Free Daily Picks page.
Pick= Kentucky +6.
This looks like our only 1st level (9AM) game today which is rare but let’s move on to Level 2.
Picks= Baylor-2.5 and Iowa State Cyclones -3.5
|NCAAF||10-1||8PM||STAN @ 13 ORE|
|NCAAF||10-1||5PM||GT @ PITT-22||R.Vegas||GT+22||6.6|||||||
|NCAAF||10-1||4PM||LSU-8 @ AUB||A.Covers||LSU-8||4.4|||||||
|NCAAF||10-1||12:30||ISU-3.5 @ KU||A.Covers||ISU-3.5||4.4|||||||
|NCAAF||10-1||12:30||9OKST @ 16BAY|
|NCAAF||10-1||9AM||UK @ MISS-6.5||A.Covers||UK+6.5||3.3|||||||
Picks= LSU Tigers -8 & Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +22
Oregon Ducks -17
Had to do picks only on last 3 levels.
NFL Picks are ready for Sunday.
Leave a comment and let us know which ones your taking, hopefully all of them. If you like action, we’re your guys. Handicapper Stats- Free Daily Picks.
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