Friday Night Football is bringing us two games tonight. One game should be very good, the other not so much. Let’s see who we got.
We are having a really good start. In College Football we are 14-3-1. In NFL we are 8-3 and our Gematria Picks are 4-1.
Let’s keep it going Friday Night.
The very good one will be a sea of red and starts at 4:30 PT on ESPN.
Florida State Seminoles (2–0) -2.5 at Louisville Cardinals (1–1) +1.5 O/U ESPN
Cardinal Stadium Louisville, Kentucky.
The line has stayed at 2.5 all week and many books just moved it to 3 a few hours before the game.
No line movement and most of the money is coming in on Florida State. Hmmm.
There has been some sharp money on Louisville as well, so maybe its justified. Las Vegas Sportsbook could’ve recieved even action if the spread was closer to five or six but were in no rush to adjust.
Las Vegas is Happy With the Line
As far as media and public perception go, they had an oppurtunity to get away with more points but chose not to. They chose to go with most software that calculate the odds of this game at 2.8 and make the spread 2.5.
We know Las Vegas well enough to know they rarely miss an oppurtunity to get an advantage unless they don’t want it. They didn’t want it here for this game.
Some Sportsbooks moved it to 3 but not many. Theres been a few like MGM that moved to 3 and then right back. Sharp money on Louisville is helping but its not like they’re trying to shake anybody off of Florida State.
Basically, the online and Las Vegas sportsbooks seem to be perfectly fine with the line just the way it is. They did not want to adjust to the heavy money coming in on the Seminoles.
We’re going small on the Louisville Cardinals or no play, we realize the Seminoles could very much blow them out. We’re thinking Louisville is going to play tough and inspired at home. No play is the call but gun to head taking the +3.
This game is another example why its important to have multiple books. In games like this that will most likely be a close game the sportsbooks are fighting to stay off the key number.
If you had multiple options you could get the number you want or have a book that allows you to buy points if you need it. The best line and juice we had was Bovada at +3(-110) and buy the point at -130 to get 4 if you wanted to get a little insurance which might be smart in this one.
We’re going with the better team tonight. Florida it is for a normal play.
5:00 PM PT Air Force Falcons (2–0) -17 at Wyoming (2–1) +17 O/U 47. CBSSN
Jonah Field at War Memorial Stadium Laramie Wyoming
The line opened up at 14.5 and quickly moved up to 17 by Monday morning. Went down to 14.5 for a day and right back up to 16.5. Many books have it at 17, which seems to be the right number because action has been pretty even for both teams since.
Maybe a little more action on Air Force but not by much, many people believe Wyoming can keep it close at home. This is a Mountain West Conference battle and casual fans might blindly take the 17 points at home.
Air Force was 10–3 last year and seem to be a little better this year.
Wyoming was 7–6 last year, but they were 2–6 in the conference. They also seem a little better this year.
Spread Seems Just Right
17 points is a lot for a division game and it’s only one of two games for the night, meaning it will get more action than it normally would. Friday night brings a lot of casual betters and they’ll be taking the points at home against the Air Force.
It didn’t seem like Vegas tipped the scale too much, they didn’t really have much of a choice unless they wanted to get the pointspread to the 20s.
It seems like this one might be a game they give to the public.
We might do a light parlay on the points but it definitely won’t be a play to talk about. Small lean on +17.
It won’t be a regular play so this won’t count as a win or a loss either way.
Friday Night Picks
Air Force -17 Half Play
Florida St -2.5
Well, we don’t have a huge read on either game but we have a decent feel for both. Staying small in this spot. Going FSU -2.5 and Air Force -16.5 for a half play.
Right now we’re going 10% each wager. These wagers will be 2.5% plays. Maybe a small parlay paired up with the Giants on Sunday and your big favorite after that game. Either Packers or Bills.
The reason you want a big favorite at the end of a 3 or 4 team parlay is to set up a free roll for the last game. Either way it gaurantees you a big % and you hedge the other side with a much smaller bet for the same amount collecting a nice ticket either way.
We discussed this method in week 1 of College Football. Article: Early Process of Picking Winners
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